Abstract:

This article investigates the reasons why Shreveport is the fastest shrinking municipal economy in the U.S. by studying the evolving dependency of the local economy on the oil and gas industry from 1980 to 2012. Sources and causes of changes to Caddo Parish retail sales during this period were identified from time lapse models using ordinary least squares regression analysis. Regression data were obtained from the Caddo-Shreveport Sales and Use Tax Commission, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Monetary Fund, and Film Shreveport Bossier. Model results indicate the instability in Caddo Parish retail sales caused by the collapse of oil and gas prices during the 1980s has evolved. As of 2012, the major sources of retail sales volatility appear no longer to directly relate to changes in wellhead oil and natural gas prices, but rather on the current natural gas glut, the related pace of Haynesville/Bossier shale gas development, and location filming for Hollywood movies and TV.